in the most favorable scenario, it will take until after 2022 for road transport to return to the level it had before the corona crisis. In the less favorable scenarios even beyond 2025. In addition, the current growth of courier and parcel services appears to be structural; explosive structural growth of 31% to 42% is expected over the next five years. The researchers warn that with these growth figures, the existing problems with courier and parcel services will increase sharply and call for urgency in formulating policy for the transport sector, by the sector itself and by the ministries involved.

Study
Research firms Policy Research Corporation and Panteia have, on behalf of the NIWO, a study of the future forecast for road transport made: “Road transport during COVID-19 and after”. Four medical scenarios about the development of the corona epidemic are leading in this. These form the basis for a complete calculation, per scenario, of the expected development of the 63 sectors of the Dutch economy. The effect on road transport and its sub-markets up to and including 2025 is mapped out from this comprehensive sector view. Unique to the study is the fact that the division of the market segments has been used as it has been used for many years by Transport and Logistics Netherlands (TLN).

The study takes a look at the expected developments in road transport up to and including 2025. At the start of the corona crisis, Prime Minister Rutte said that we are sailing by sight. This still seems to be the motto for many economic sectors. Few studies can concretize long-term economic development. Where can backlash or growth be noticed, how big is it and how long does it take?

Results
In the most favorable scenario, it will take until after 2022 before the expected added value in road transport is back to the level it was before the corona crisis. In the less favorable scenarios even beyond 2025. In, among others, the submarkets ferry transport, car transport and waste materials transport, the initial contraction will be considerable and the recovery will be weak in the next five years. On the other hand, the distribution and construction materials transport submarkets show a smaller initial contraction and a faster recovery. The courier and parcel services present a completely different picture, in this market segment there was no contraction for a moment. Thanks to COVID-19, many have found their way to e-commerce with, also in the longer term, unprecedented growth for parcel services. The expected growth figures for the next five years will fluctuate, depending on the scenario to be unfolded, between 31% and 42%. Forecasts from the study confirm that the corona crisis does not provide a structural answer to driver shortage. Although fewer drivers are needed due to the drop in demand in road freight transport, the drop in demand is not so great that the driver shortage disappears.

Recommendations
The authors of the report point to the expected explosive growth of the courier and parcel services when they state that there is urgency in making policy for this sector. Reflection on the growth of the courier and parcel services is in order. For example, the growth leads to more CO2 emissions, more unsafe situations in traffic, extra pressure on the road network in busy cities, more economic activity in a market that is not very transparent and more social abuses. The study explains that professionalisation within the courier and parcel services is necessary and that it is urgent to do so.

The study also considers that a change in mentality in road freight transport is necessary to deal with structural challenges in the sector (the need for sustainability, capacity sharing and increasing the load factor). A greater emphasis on innovation and social responsibility is desirable throughout the chain. The researchers see an important role for logistics champions in pursuing this change in mentality. These are companies that play a pioneering role in the sector through the technologies used, access to (big) data, the logistics processes used and the existing corporate culture. The report recommends retaining or attracting the head offices of such companies for the Netherlands and actively pursuing growth or takeovers for companies that cannot yet play such a pioneering role. It investigation report also points to research into the crisis preparedness of Dutch road freight transport and the retention, or even intensification, of measures against driver shortages and congestion.

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