The RAI Association and BOVAG expect that in 2022 the number of new passenger car registrations will amount to approximately 390.000 units. The shortage of computer chips will continue to affect the car industry in the coming year, as a result of which a thorough recovery will take longer than previously assumed. According to the forecast, the number of new light commercial vehicles will be approximately 2022 in 67.000.
The market for and availability of new passenger cars is currently dominated by the effects of the corona crisis, the biggest exponent being the shortage of computer chips. The demand for computer chips in the automotive industry is partly determined by the strong need for electric and hybrid powered cars in Europe and luxury cars in Asia. A modern passenger car today contains approximately 1.000 computer chips on average, which is about a quarter more than a few years ago. This year, the effects of this are already clearly visible in the registration figures and the shortages are expected to continue into the second half of 2022. For calendar year 2021, BOVAG and RAI Association are counting on 327.000 registrations of new passenger cars, in contrast to the 400.000 that was assumed a year ago.
EV sales 2022
The RAI Association and BOVAG are cautious in their predictions about the development of the market for electric cars (EV market) in 2022. On the one hand, sales may be held back by the persistent chip shortage and uncertainty about the effects of a higher addition to the tax liability for business electric drivers. On the other hand, the market will receive an incentive now that private individuals can make use of a purchase subsidy again next year and a number of new (affordable) models are also being introduced on the market. In 2022, the private purchase subsidy will be EUR 3.350 for a new electric car. A total of 71 million euros in subsidy will be available next year, with which more than 21.000 new electric cars can be subsidized. Due to these uncertainties, the market share for EV in total new sales is expected to be between 20 and 30 percent.
End-of-year peak
In recent years, there has always been a run on electric cars at the end of the year due to an increase in the addition for private use by business drivers, as of 1 January. In 2020, 40 percent of all new electric cars sold in December were therefore registered. In the coming year, the addition will increase from 12 to 16 percent and the amount to which this percentage applies will be reduced from 40.000 to 35.000 euros. Due to the chip shortage, it is not certain to what extent the industry can meet the demand that will arise in the coming weeks. BOVAG and RAI Association expect that the end-of-year peak will be less significant this year as a result.
Company cars
The registrations of light commercial vehicles show a more stable picture, although there is also a shortage of computer chips in this market. Sales this year are expected to increase by 6 percent compared to 2020 and amount to 66.000 units. The upward trend will continue in 2022 and is estimated to reach 67.000 registrations, according to Royal RAI Association.
